The Wild, Wild American League

By Rant On Contributor, Andy Bass

9/27/2021

The AL Wild Card race is getting pretty nuts. What in the world is going on? Andy breaks it all down!

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The Wild, Wild American League

There’s just nothing like American League baseball in September.

With just six games to play, the AL Wild Card is completely up for grabs. As it stands right now, the night of Sunday, September 26th, the Wild Card standings are as follows.

New York Yankees 89-67

Boston Red Sox 88-68

Toronto Blue Jays 87-69 1 Game Back

Seattle Mariners 86-70 2 Games Back

Oakland Athletics 85-71 3 Games Back

The Yankees just took over first place in the Wild Card standings today after completing a sweep of the Red Sox in Fenway Park, now having won six games in a row. New York came into this season with sky-high expectations after the past couple of seasons of postseason disappointment. This season has been a frustratingly streaky one for the Yankees though. Win six in a row, then lose six of seven. Win 13 in a row, then lose 12 of 15. Injuries have certainly not helped matters, as well as surprise COVID breakouts despite being one of the most vaccinated teams in baseball very early on, but the Bronx Bombers seem to have finally gotten a little bit of their stride back at the perfect time. With series against the Blue Jays and Rays, it won’t be an easy end to the season, but New York is in the best position possible for it.

The Boston Red Sox weren’t supposed to be here. Fangraphs had Boston with a 38.9% chance to make the playoffs before the season started, projecting them at 85-77. They’ve blown past those expectations and are now in a firm fight for the playoffs, mostly due in part to their stellar offense. Here are their offensive rankings: Runs (4th), Batting Average (3rd), On-Base Percentage (5th), Slugging Percentage (2nd). You really can’t understate how important the offense has been given that Boston is 28th in Fielding Percentage and middle-of-the-pack to straight up bad in terms of pitching. Somehow, this Boston team has put enough runs on the board to propel them to where they are now, and with their last six games being against the Orioles and Nationals, this team should be playing in the Wild Card Game. Anything less, is embarrassing to be honest.

The Toronto Blue Jays are just fun, man. You think the Red Sox have good offensive numbers? Somehow, the Blue Jays are just ahead of them in EVERY category! What sets them apart though, is the quality of their pitching. Toronto is top 10 in ERA, WHIP, and Batting Average Against, and 4th in Quality Starts (starting pitchers goes at least 6 innings, allows 3 earned runs or less). This is how Toronto has amassed their incredible run differential of +172 despite only being 18 games over .500, losing close games, and blowing teams out in their wins. The only teams with a better run differential are the Dodgers (100-56, duh), Astros (91-65, still hate them with my whole heart), Giants (102-54, also duh), and the Rays (97-59). All that to say, what the Blue Jays are doing is not common. Their youth is awesome to see and bring some fresh air into MLB, and they have an offense that you don’t want to mess with in a one game Wild Card.

The Seattle Mariners have no business being in this article. With a 2.9% chance to make the playoffs per Fangraphs before the season, one of the worst offenses in baseball, and a roster that I would be hard-pressed to name three of their players, they are the ultimate “Wait, what?” team. Their pitching? Meh, fairly average. They are the only team in the Wild Card hunt with a NEGATIVE run differential, -61 for your information. At the end of the day, Seattle is hoping for chaos. Their schedule is the Athletics and the Angels, games they could easily win, but they will need help from the boys ahead of them to have a chance.

And finally, the Oakland Athletics. Oakland is one of those teams that always seems to just hang around, and here they are once more. With a middling offense, solid starting pitching and a good bullpen has been their key so far. A rough second half of the season has not helped their case, only going one game above .500 since the All Star Break. The A’s, like the Mariners, will need all that chaos and then some to make it to the postseason, as they have Seattle and Houston to wrap things up. There would have to be a Red Sox implosion, a Yankees/Blue Jays red hot streak, as well as their best baseball of the season. Definitely not a “control your own destiny” situation.

With just one week to go, I’d say any of these teams have a chance, with all of them except the A’s being in a very realistic position to make their push. When the week wraps up though, I see this being the Yankees hosting the Red Sox in the one-game Wild Card. The Red Sox schedule is too easy for them to be left out and I think the Yankees have all their cylinders firing just right at the perfect time. The Blue Jays-Yankees series will be one for the ages and will ultimately decide this thing. The Blue Jays have the Orioles after that, which will give them a chance, but with Boston’s easy schedule and the Yankees two game lead, I don’t see it happening.

What do you think? Let’s hear it in the comments.