By Rant On Contributor, Andy Bass
10/1/2021
Is Alabama on upset alert this weekend? Does Lane Kiffin have what it takes? Our pall and Alabama homer, Andy talks it out.
“Jameson Williams is an absolute electric factory on offense as well as special teams”
Alabama - Ole Miss Preview
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but did you guys know that Nick Saban is undefeated against former assistants of his? I won’t bore you about his 23-0 record where only two of the 23 were won by less than 14 points, but be ready to hear about it nonstop on Sportscenter, College Gameday, SEC Nation, etc. as the Lane Train comes rumbling down the tracks from Oxford.
Ole Miss is coming into this game 3-0 with a win over Louisville being its claim to fame thus far and a Bye Week this past weekend. Regardless of their opponents’ quality, you can’t help but be impressed with their offense this season. 52.7 points per game, almost 300 yards per game passing AND rushing (336.7 and 298.7, respectively), and a legitimate Heisman candidate in Matt Corral has made Ole Miss a very trendy team for analysts across the country to fall in love with. You put Ole Miss’ powder blues with Matt Corral at QB and Lane Kiffin calling the plays and it’s honestly just an aesthetic dream come true. Everything about them looks fantastic. And you heard it here first, boy are they gonna score.
It’s true. Ole Miss is far and away the best offense that Alabama has faced this season and could be the best they will face period. In fact, as of right now, Ole Miss has the #1 offense in college football in terms of yards and points per game. And while the Ole Miss defense seems to have improved from last year, when there was nowhere to go but up, I still expect this game to be pretty similar to last year’s shoot-out.
Let’s reminisce on that game real quick. Three total punts, all in the first half, nine touchdowns in the second half, and ultimately, Ole Miss getting held to a field goal on their last two drives is what won Alabama the game, 63-48. This was a 42-42 game early in the fourth quarter, and then somehow Alabama’s defense dug deep and was able to bend without breaking. I fondly remember this game as A) an over bet of mine that I absolutely crushed, and B) the game that made me think Alabama couldn’t win a national championship. LOL. But seriously, go check out the box score to that game if you’re bored, it was absolutely nuts. Ole Miss was 4-4 on fourth down conversions!!!
Anyway, back to this upcoming weekend. People can say that Ole Miss has an improved defense all day long, but at the end of the day that tape is against Louisville, Austin Peay, and Tulane. Alabama’s defense on the other hand was supposed to be the strength of this team in the preseason. After a solid, injury-free effort against Southern Miss where Will Anderson looked healthy and the secondary showed some additional improvement, Alabama has something to prove on Saturday. They were whooped by the Florida Gators in the second half two weeks ago, and I guarantee you that Lane Kiffin had that tape on repeat in his office all week. Probably thought it would just seep into his brain through osmosis.
Outside of the Florida game though, Alabama’s defense has been good against lesser competition. Mercer and Southern Miss each got two touchdowns, but three of those four came in the second half with Bama well ahead and backups were either in the game or about to be. Miami could only manage 13 points in a game where they looked completely overwhelmed in every single way. With Chris Allen out for the year, Alabama’s pass rush won’t be exactly what fans had hoped, but it hasn’t been bad. With the secondary they have as well, the pass rush doesn’t even have to be that good.
Alabama’s offense is exactly what fans have grown to expect after the past few years. Scoring 30 points has become automatic which is something I never thought I would say about my Crimson Tide. Bryce Young, who many people, mostly me, were unsure of because of his size, has silenced every doubter and is now a Heisman front-runner. Jameson Williams is an absolute electric factory on offense as well as special teams. Brian Robinson should be good to go after sitting out against Southern Miss, and hopefully the running game can be there to support Young if and when he needs it.
Unfortunately folks, I see this game being a stressful mess just like last year. Alabama’s defense is not bad, but Ole Miss has an offense that will attack and never take their foot off the gas. This will be a game where field goal makes/misses will have an enormous impact. Just like those bend, don’t break stops by Alabama last year, this game will be decided based on the ability of the defenses to make a stop by any means possible. You can’t get discouraged by a busted coverage or a missed tackle, you just have to get up and make the next play. Something to keep an eye on as well will be the number of big plays. If either team is scoring off of primarily big plays, that will mean short drives. Short drives lead to your defense having less time to catch their breath and gameplan on the sidelines, and in this type of game, those are the things that matter. If Alabama is having six minute drives and Ole Miss is getting 80-yard touchdowns, I take that as advantage Alabama in my book.
My final prediction? 52-45 Crimson Tide. I think there will be a couple more punts than last year and a little bit better defense this time around, but a shootout that goes down to the wire still. Sound off in the comments below with your predictions for Saturday and be sure to tune in to this week’s Rant On!